Here are the projected Daily Station “Braidings” [sic] in the 2009 Business Plan:
Do these computer-model numbers make any sense?
Palmdale (population: 150k) would see almost as many boardings as Los Angeles (population: 3.8 million).
Anaheim (i.e. Disneyland) is projected to have travel demand as great as San Francisco (i.e. terminus for most Bay Area travelers).
Computer models are only as good as the assumptions and data fed into them. Garbage in, garbage out.
The Palmdale numbers almost make sense, if you assume HSR will brand itself as a high-speed commuter rail service for Antelope Valley, with attractive fares. The ridership model says that most ridership out of Palmdale will be regional, mainly to LAUS.
However, the numbers for Anaheim are a joke. So are the numbers for Burbank/Sylmar, in the other direction, even if the MTA insists on not funding any connecting transit to them and building the Foothills extension instead.
Interestingly, on the CAHSR website’s interactive route map, the numbers make a lot more sense. Palmdale is still high, but SJ is higher, Sylmar is much higher, and Anaheim is much lower.