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Archive for the ‘risk’ Category

Yet another flawed bike helmet study:

Researchers analyzed the number of U.S. bicycle deaths between 1999 and 2010 and found that states with bicycle helmet laws reported about 20 percent fewer bike-related fatalities among people younger than 16 years old.

“The impetus is that when you make it a law, parents realize it’s important and parents get their kids to do it,” said Dr. William Meehan, the study’s lead author from Boston Children’s Hospital.

About 900 people die as a result of bicycle crashes every year in the U.S. and about three quarters of those are from head injuries, according to Meehan and his colleagues.

Previous research has found that wearing a helmet may reduce a person’s risk of a head or brain injury by up to 88 percent, but few studies have looked at the effect of helmet laws on national injury and fatality rates.

If you read the actual paper, the final sentence shows the problem with the methodology:

The present study did not address the effect of helmet laws on ridership.

There are other problems. The paper (unless there is a longer version?) lacks any data, just presenting the conclusions. It does not correlate bike fatalities against a state’s overall traffic fatality rate.

However, the biggest problem with this (and all other helmet studies) is the lack of data on bike facilitiesBike helmets are no substitute for proper bike facilities. Instead of focusing on bike helmets, states need to provide safe routes for kids to ride away from the danger of motor vehicle collisions.

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Faregates are the answer…now what was the question again?

The MTA Blue Line opened in 1990, and according to Garcia’s office, it is the second busiest line in the Metro system. Specifically, Long Beach has eight Blue Line stations with an estimated 6 million boardings every year at those eight stations.

The request would ask the City Manager’s Office to look into the possibility of lobbying for electronic turnstiles for the Long Beach stations.

“They’re really helpful when it comes to public safety and ensuring everyone is paying their fees,” Garcia said. “There are none in Long Beach … but we have one of the largest volumes (of passengers) in the county.”

Lowenthal said the main reason she came on as a co-author of the agenda item was the turnstile issue, which she also said could help with safety issues.

So let me get this straight: Long Beach riders have the slowest street running, and some of the busiest stations. And your plan is make trips take even longer by adding turnstiles?

And as for turnstiles making the stations “safer”:

The big problem, he said with Long Beach stations in particular, would be the fact that those stations are placed in the median of the roads there. With those locations, latched gates could queue up potential riders and push them into dangerous areas along the street — creating a new safety issue.

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Why Does .05 BAC Make A Difference?

The NTSB is recommending that States lower blood-alcohol-content (BAC) to 0.05. The nationwide standard is currently 0.08. The US is one of the few countries to have 0.08 limit:

The United States, Canada and Iraq are among a small handful of countries that have set the BAC level at .08. Most countries in Europe, including Russia, most of South America and Australia, have set BAC levels at .05 to constitute drunken driving.

When Australia dropped its BAC level from .08 to .05, provinces reported a 5-18 percent drop in traffic fatalities.

Australia enacted the 0.05 law in 1991. The interesting thing is that a lot of the reduction in fatalities was from drivers having BAC in the greater than  .08 range:

bac_graph

A similar reduction was found in roadside random breath tests:

bac2

It should be noted that the law did not change at all for drivers with BAC .08 and higher. It was only for .05-.o8 levels that the law changed. The rationale from the NTSB is that there are biological reasons for reducing the BAC level to .05, but it is possible there are other factors that explain the reduction in fatalities.

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How many engineers does it take to change the brakes on a train?

The next step is for us along with our contractors, Veolia and Bombardier, to determine the proper procedure for the installation of the new 100g split disc rotors. Together we will take all safety factors into consideration. Once all parties approve this process, we will begin the installation of the new rotors onto the Sprinter test vehicle. FRA and CPUC officials will observe the installation. We have invited representatives from Siemens (the Sprinter manufacturer) and certified California engineers to observe the installation and the testing and to review the data.

This really gives an idea of how over-regulated passenger rail has become. Representatives from two government agencies are supervising, plus the various contractors and other “invited” guests.

And here is a photo of the test-run. Note how they are paying a flagman to stand around holding a Stop sign — in addition to the perfectly operating crossing gates. Can’t be too careful!

Sprinter Flagman

And this testing is expected go on for months:

Sunday’s test, in which one train ran between Escondido and San Marcos, was the first in what’s expected to be a weeks- or months-long overall evaluation period. ”Everything went great” Sunday, transit district spokeswoman Frances Schnall said Monday. “Everyone was really pleased with how things went.”

The train reached speeds of up to 50 mph, she said. State law imposes a 55 mph speed limit on the train.

Yep, 55 mph speed limit. Can’t be too careful!

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More information has come to light regarding the Sprinter shutdown. It confirms suspicions that the shutdown was the direct result of CPUC meddling in the design of the braking system:

Before service began in March 2008, SPRINTER-manufacturer Siemens added additional brakes on the vehicles to make them compliant with the California Public Utilities Commission’s standards for light rail vehicle brake rates. These specially-made brakes are unique to California and are not found on any of the approximately 600 other similar models running in Europe. Once mechanics and engineers saw the “unusual wear pattern” on the discs about a year after the SPRINTER began service, they started planning for their eventual replacement — “when the time came,” according to Berk’s email on March 10, 2013.

The “Sprinter” train is widely used all over Europe, where it has had an excellent record. So it is quite extraordinary that California’s PUC, which has no expertise in this area, ordered changes to a proven design.

Richard Berk, the agency’s rail maintenance engineer, seems to have been made into the fall-guy for the fiasco. He inherited the CPUC insane design, and spent 3 years trying to find a suitable replacement wheel disc to meet the spec. What follows is his resignation letter:

Dear colleagues,

This is to disseminate some background information and more technical detail to the rail vehicle design and maintenance community about the situation at North County Transit District that prompted suspension of service on the SPRINTER DMU operated rail transit operation in San Diego County and my decision to resign as Rail Mechanical Officer.

CPUC “discovered” an unusual wear pattern on the non-powered wheel plate mounted brake discs with hollowing that exceeds the manufacturer’s recommendation. The finding escalated to a troubling decision to suspend SPRINTER service.

Rapid wear on the non-powered wheel discs is the result of the extraordinary high brake rates for this weight vehicle that was required by CPUC for operation in California. The problem is compounded by the fact that the inboard discs are trapped on the axle by the mounted wheel and can’t be replaced as part of routine maintenance. Also the design is unique to the 32 NCTD vehicles and not found on any of the other 600 (or so) Siemens Desiro Classic vehicles running in Europe.

Bombardier, under contract to provide SPRINTER vehicle maintenance services, had formally requested a proposal from Faiveley, the foundation brake OEM, about 3 years ago for split discs that would enable maintenance replacement of the discs when the time came. Faiveley, apparently absorbed with acquiring Ellcon National and Graham-White was non-responsive until last summer when we received an unrealistic proposal for development of a new product with 44 week lead time and an $11,000 per disc cost!

Since then, Bombardier has worked to develop a realistic supply source but the timing missed by probably 90-120 days.

I am quite confident that the present condition, although not comfortable, does not pose any unmanageable risk that can’t be handled like any other much more catastrophic crisis developments in our field – the MetroNorth wheel burn off and hollow axle scare comes to mind. The situation should be managed with stepped up inspections and testing that would allow a rational assessment of the risk and enable a prudent reaction period if an obvious problem becomes apparent before replacement split discs can be delivered an installed.

Personally, I decided to resign, abruptly, from NCTD Friday a week ago after the CPUC triggered “crisis” situation developed. The decision was prompted entirely by our CEO’s unconstrained rage and focus on pinning blame rather than learning about the problem and ways to resolve it.

Regards,

Dick Berk

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DOT Appointment

Deborah Hersman, according to some news reports, is the leading candidate to head the Dept. of Transportation. If true, that would come as something of a disappointment. Many advocates were hoping for someone with a technical background to lead the department, especially in the areas of passenger rail or bike/ped planning.

Hersman currently heads the NTSB, an agency well known for its hostility to lightweight trains. And she has been the leading proponent for giving the FTA broad powers to impose safety rules on public transit operators. Whereas the NTSB is only an advisory body, she would have real power as head of DOT to actually impose such changes. That is a worrisome thought.

Hersmanchildsafety

Hersman giving a road safety presentation to schoolkids. Car seats and bike helmets kiddies!

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lohan

In court today, Lindsay Lohan’s attorney submitted a Not Guilty plea on reckless driving charges:

Lohan is charged with reckless driving, lying to police about whether she was driving when her Porsche slammed into the back of a dump truck, and obstructing police from performing their duties. The accident occurred while Lohan and her assistant were on their way to shoot a beach scene for the television movie “Liz and Dick.” The actress told police that she wasn’t driving, but police suspect she was behind the wheel.

Lohan already has two DWI convictions, and was also caught driving on a suspended license. She has been involved in numerous accidents. The Jalopnik blog asks the obvious question: how does Lohan still have a driver’s license?

At the very least, her car insurance must be ridiculous. Lohan and driving were enough of a concern for Lifetime producers to specify that she couldn’t operate a motor vehicle while they were filming Liz & Dick, in which Lohan starred as Elizabeth Taylor (the insurance for the picture would have been too high). Just this year, she’s been involved in three accidents, one of them a hit and run.

I’m sure her high income helps with the car insurance payments, but a more troubling question is why the DMV has not taken action? Sadly, it probably isn’t because she is rich and famous. It is rare for the DMV to revoke anyone’s license, even when there is ample reason to do so. 

The tabloid press, of course, enjoys playing up Lohan’s driving antics. And it is all fun and games, until she hits a babystroller.

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NTSB Mindset

An inattentive trucker with a history of speeding violations is operating a rig with 11 of 16 brakes worn out, and the ABS disabled. He crashes into the side of an Amtrak train, killing four passengers and a conductor.

It goes without saying that the NTSB is going to conclude that stricter regulation is needed for the hauling industry, right?

Ha, Ha! Just kidding:

Among other things, the panel also recommended the development of side-impact worthiness standards to minimum encroachment into rail cars and requiring passenger rail car doors to be designed to prevent fire and smoke from moving between cars — although they acknowledged fire doors would not have made a difference in this case.

No matter what the primary cause of a fatal railway accident may be, the NTSB recommendation is always going to be “build the railcars like tanks.” That is their mindset.

 

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Only creeps and weirdos ride the bus. So any parent sending their child to school by public transit is obviously an unfit parent:

It had been brought to her attention, the principal said, by some “concerned parents,” that my daughter had been riding the city bus to and from school. I said, yes, we had just moved outside of the neighborhood, and felt that this was the most convenient way for our 5th grader to get there and back. The principal asked was I not concerned for her safety? “Safety from what?” I inquired. “Kidnapping,” she said reluctantly.

I said that I would not bore her by talking statistics that, being in the business of taking care of young children, she surely knew better than I did. She reminded me that our transfer application (a formality in cases such as ours, when the student has less than a year left to complete at their former school) has not yet been submitted, and that if we were “unable to provide transportation,” the central office would not approve this transfer. I assured her that we were perfectly able to provide transportation, but were choosing to avail ourselves of the city’s excellent public transportation system instead.

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Sharrows Suck

“Sharrow” striping is one of the stupidest ideas ever devised by road planners. Designed to avoid political conflicts on removing parking or auto lanes — they are quite useless for cyclists. Indeed, sharrows may increase the risk to cyclists according to a recent UBC study. Lots of good data in the study, but here is the main result:

The study also found traffic circles to be extremely dangerous. That is a surprising and controversial result.

Update: Here is the main link to the study group, with some additional info.

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