BART has released its Draft EIR for a proposed Livermore extension.
- Projected Cost: $1.1-$3.9 billion BART bucks 1
- Projected Ridership: 20-30k new BART riders (2035 projection)
For 2008, Caltrans reports traffic volume on I580 is approximately 220k vehicles per day. 25 years from now, the volumes will be considerably greater.
Conclusion: the BART extension would capture negligible 10% mode share.
The majority of I580 traffic is regional, originating from points well beyond Livermore (Tracy and the greater Central Valley). The extension of BART tracks a mere 10 miles Eastward is not going to attract many customers in the corridor.
So once again, we see how plans by CHSRA to route high-speed rail through Pacheco instead of Altamont will utterly screw traffic in the East Bay for the next quarter century.
1Conversion from BART Bucks to US currency varies from project to project, but is typically in the range of +50%.