The BART-Oakland airport connector has been in operation for 6 months. And now that we are entering the peak summer flying season, it is a good opportunity to look at actual ridership numbers.
For the month of June, the average weekday daily ridership was 3,231 entries and exits. The month of May had similar ridership (3,203 entries and exits).
In its final ridership study (to obtain grant funding) BART had predicted OAC ridership to be in the range of 3,260-3,940 in the year 2015. That number was later revised downward to 2,685.
The OAC replaced the AirBART bus service. The baseline bus ridership was 2100, although ten years ago it was much higher (around 3500 average weekday trips). This gives (at best) a net gain in transit ridership of 1,000 daily trips — a dismal result for a capital project costing $500 million.
Systemic Failure 
Ridership is on the low end of the original prediction upon which the grant was based, and exceeds the revised prediction. Seems like whoever developed that original prediction deserves a pat on the back.
Prediction seems good, but unfortunately they spent half a billion dollars for 3k riders a day whereas something like a 30th street BART station or other improvements might get 10-15K.
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